BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Florida has surged: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+118%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Florida: up 118% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Florida is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±120.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Florida is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±120.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.700.001.4
20260.700.001.4
20270.700.001.4
20280.690.001.4
20290.690.001.4

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lovedale1320111987
Eglin A.F.B.1120111997
Oak Grove 21020242017
Miccosukee820231966
Oak Grove520161969
New Hope520112009
Blountstown320241967
Blackwater320241987
Miller Xrds320191987
Nixon319861985
Telogia219841968
Covington220151968
Betts220241987
Bristol220091986
Ft Waltn Bch120091992
Mossy Head120111966
Broad Branch120241969
Seminole Hls120001968
Port St Joe120131969
Steinhatchee120011966
Belmont119871973
Micanopy119701970
Apalachicola120171988
Ft Gadsden120241969
Ocala120052005

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.