BirdAnalyst
Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi has increased: up 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 12–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 12–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.6%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025231134
2026231135
2027231135
2028231235
2029231235

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Scooba7019821967
Mt Carmel6320161974
Scooba 26019871983
Diberville5219871979
Amite River4320132008
Tchula3619751970
Monticello3420172007
Sandy Creek3020001993
Panther Swamp Nwr3020182016
Tchula 23019941976
Tchula 32920241995
Water Valley2820182015
Olive Branch2520011969
Leaf River2520132008
Star2520242016
Walthall2419871970
Weir2420242007
Neely2320121974
Latimer 22320232021
De Soto2220192008
Holly Springs2220242009
Grenada Lake2220191997
Beverly2120111966
Okatibbee L.2120081995
Cockrum2020241966

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.