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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi has risen sharply: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has risen sharply in Mississippi: up 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 11–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 23 (95% range 11–35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026221134
2027231134
2028231134
2029231134
2030231135

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Scooba7019821967
Mt Carmel6320161974
Scooba 26019871983
Diberville5219871979
Amite River4320132008
Tchula3619751970
Monticello3420172007
Sandy Creek3020001993
Panther Swamp Nwr3020182016
Tchula 23019941976
Water Valley2820182015
Forest2620251972
Tchula 32620251995
Olive Branch2520011969
Leaf River2520132008
Tallahatchie2520251996
Walthall2419871970
Neely2320121974
Latimer 22320232021
De Soto2220192008
Holly Springs2220242009
Grenada Lake2220191997
Star2220252016
Beverly2120111966
Weir2120252007

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.