BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Oregon has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Oregon is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Oregon is projected to fall about 52% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.950.002.0
20260.940.002.0
20270.920.002.0
20280.900.002.0
20290.880.001.9

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imnaha2220241968
Pendleton1820241978
Elkton1620241972
Umpqua1520241968
Newbridge1420241992
Fish Lake1320241972
Bridgeport1020221986
Secret Val1020221975
Logdell920241971
Three Forks820212003
Sparta820001971
Lorane720241993
Troy620241992
Green620241994
Days Creek520241970
Silver Creek520242017
Emigrant Lk519921972
Hells Canyon520221992
Ruch520231992
Salem420242002
Sams Valley420241993
Santiam320242004
Eightmile320241982
Adrian320211985
Zumwalt320031999

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.