BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Oregon

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Oregon has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
65Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Oregon is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±58.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Oregon is projected to fall about 52% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.00–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±58.5%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.002.1
20270.990.002.1
20280.970.002.1
20290.950.002.0
20300.940.002.0

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imnaha2320251968
Pendleton1620251978
Umpqua1320251968
Newbridge1320251992
Bridgeport1220251986
Ruch1120251992
Fish Lake1020251972
Three Forks820212003
Days Creek720251970
Secret Val720251975
Green720251994
Sparta620251971
Silver Creek620252017
Hells Canyon620251992
Santiam520252004
Emigrant Lk519921972
Lorane520251993
Logdell420251971
Wedderburn420251976
Elkton420251972
Troy420251992
Twickenham420252019
Catlow Rim420251997
Zumwalt320031999
Sams Valley320251993

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.