BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Virginia has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-60%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has fallen sharply in Virginia: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Virginia is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Virginia is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 3.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.00–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.30.266.2
20273.10.166.1
20283.00.056.0
20292.90.005.9
20302.80.005.8

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Truhart4020241996
Ft Pickett S2719951993
Concord2620241967
Branchville2620241966
Finchley2220211994
Newville2020241988
Ft Pickett N1919951993
Wylliesburg1720191971
Moran1720251996
Church Road1520251966
Stickleyvill1319901975
Appomattox1320241995
Mannboro1220251967
Waverly1219871967
Surry1220251977
Newsoms1120241967
Gladys1120251994
Walkers1120231992
Carters Brdg 21020252015
Brandon1020251992
Sharps920251967
Clinchport919781967
Brodnax920251973
White Stone820251966
Ringgold720251976

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.