BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Nevada

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Nevada has surged: up 937% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+937%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Nevada: up 937% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Nevada is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.43–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.43–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Nevada is projected to fall about 22% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.43–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.362.4
20271.40.382.4
20281.40.402.4
20291.40.422.4
20301.40.432.4

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meadow Vally1720251996
Ash Meadows1120251993
Ruby Valley 2820242004
Virgin Creek620181995
Humboldt Nf 2420252021
Willis420251988
Calico Spr319741974
Humboldt Nf320191993
Beatty220242011
Nelson220162001
Ruby Valley220011999
Piute Mdws120192013
Midas120192019
Dinner Sta119681968
Ranchogrande120171990
Comins Lake120132005
Fish Creek120192007
Austin120142014
Toiyabe Nf120132013
Majors Place120252025
Dobbin Creek119931993
Hiko120251968
Val Of Fire120062005
Jarbidge120142007
Chimney Res.120252013

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.