BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in California has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-3%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in California. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in California is projected to rise about 208% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.38–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+208%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.38–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±231.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in California is projected to rise about 208% by 2029 — from 0.39 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.38–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±231.6%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.372.0
20261.20.372.0
20271.20.372.0
20281.20.382.0
20291.20.382.0

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horse Creek4820191970
Jofegan 21320242024
Hay Fork1220162001
Lonesome Rdg1120141994
Orleans1020121972
San Ysidro820191973
Longvale820231972
Iron Gate720191988
Rio Dell520081979
Shasta Lake520241972
Imperial Dam520101973
Folsom520241984
Jofegan420182006
Holmes320241969
Junction Cty320121972
Alderpoint320121974
Whiskeytown320072002
Crescent Cty220241977
Honeydew220171968
Red Bluff220221968
Calpella219861968
Hullville220191968
Yokohl Val219811978
Glamis219771977
Ono220121984

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.