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Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in California has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in California. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in California is projected to rise about 243% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.30–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±283.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+243%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±283.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in California is projected to rise about 243% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.30–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±283.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.292.0
20271.10.292.0
20281.10.292.0
20291.10.292.0
20301.10.302.0

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horse Creek4820191970
Hay Fork1220162001
Lonesome Rdg1120141994
Orleans1020121972
San Ysidro820191973
Longvale820231972
Jofegan 2720252024
Iron Gate720191988
Holmes520251969
Rio Dell520081979
Imperial Dam520101973
Jofegan420182006
Joshua Tree 2420252025
Shasta Lake320251972
Junction Cty320121972
Alderpoint320121974
Whiskeytown320072002
Honeydew220171968
Red Bluff220221968
Calpella219861968
Hullville220191968
Yokohl Val219811978
Glamis219771977
Ono220121984
Folsom220251984

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.