BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Kentucky is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 9.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 0.17–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Kentucky is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 9.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 0.17–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.00.8213
20276.80.6613
20286.70.4913
20296.50.3413
20306.40.1713

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil3819971996
Paintsville3719951979
Drakesboro3519931966
Joy3220231966
Mckee2720251967
Kehoe2719921966
Bays Fork2420191999
Riverqueen2320252007
Johnsonville2220211966
Gesling2119731967
Apex1820252005
Beattyville 21820242006
Kehoe 21720242005
Lovelacevile1620251967
Pine Ridge1619781966
Dixie1620191967
Lebanon Junction1520252000
Hegira1420241988
Levee1419821966
Daniel Boone1419881966
Merrimac1320241967
Canton1220251967
Carter1220251976
Shiloh1120251967
Monticello1120221968

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.