BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Kentucky has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has fallen sharply in Kentucky: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Kentucky is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 0.14–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Kentucky is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 9.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.4 (95% range 0.14–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.00.7913
20266.80.6313
20276.70.4613
20286.50.3013
20296.40.1413

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Staffordsvil3819971996
Paintsville3719951979
Drakesboro3519931966
Riverqueen3320242007
Joy3220231966
Kehoe2719921966
Bays Fork2420191999
Johnsonville2220211966
Gesling2119731967
Mckee1920241967
Apex1920242005
Beattyville 21820242006
Kehoe 21720242005
Pine Ridge1619781966
Dixie1620191967
Hegira1420241988
Levee1419821966
Daniel Boone1419881966
Porter1420241966
Merrimac1320241967
Carter1320241976
Lebanon Junction1320242000
Monticello1120221968
Gatewood1120191966
Morganfield1120242022

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.