BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in New York has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in New York. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2022TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2022 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in New York is projected to stay roughly flat through 2022, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662022
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20180.000.000.03
20190.000.000.03
20200.000.000.03
20210.000.000.03
20220.000.000.03

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Branchport319731968
Mt Hope219691969
E Youngstown219761976
Huntington119781978
Somers119751975
Rhinebeck119661966
Warwick119711971
Westbrookvle120172017
Cobleskill119671967
S Berne119971977
Corbettsvile119721968
Oxford119711971
E Newark119711971
Romulus119751975
Vestal Ctr119721971
Orleans119771977
Canadice L119711970
Mt Morris119831977
Hamburg119801969
Sheridan119751975
Cherry Hill119851985
Churchville119831983
Penfield119721972
Cicero Ctr119681968
Warwick 2119881975

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.