BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Texas has surged: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+81%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Texas: up 81% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Texas is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.1–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Texas is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.1–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.21.94.4
20263.22.04.4
20273.22.04.5
20283.32.04.5
20293.32.14.5

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quitman Cyn.6720091999
Indian Mtn4320241976
Montell3720241995
Utopia3620241974
Leakey2820241994
Smyrna2720101995
Alexander St2120241995
Powell Park 22020242022
Fred1820241995
Powell Park1720211995
Smyrna 21620232011
Caledonia1520241969
Devils R Cyn1520241994
Weches1520241995
Crossroads1320241967
Liberty Hill1320231968
Ozona1320221978
Rockspring1320241994
Harper1220241969
Lydia1220231967
Neches Bith1120172016
Longfellow1020241968
Lance Rosier Bith1020192014
Big Sandy Bith920242015
Diboll820241968

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.