BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Alabama

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Alabama has declined: down 38% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-38%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Alabama is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 10–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Alabama is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 10–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161021
2026161021
2027161021
2028161021
2029151021

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Epes5120241980
Liberty City4620111979
Borden Sprng4219981993
Linden4020231968
Latham 23520242005
Nixburg 23520242000
Helicon3520241996
Greensboro3320241966
Gastonburg3220241996
Whitehouse3120241980
Howard2920241966
Nixburg2819991995
Warrior Std2620241966
Holt2620241993
Rock Chapel2620241995
Hillsboro2319961966
Brooksville2220231984
Gainestown Ferry2220151999
Carrollton2120241994
Vernon2120221996
Mt Olive2020241966
Elamville2020241984
Eufaula2020241996
Latham1920001967
Childersburg1919991985

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.