BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Alabama

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Alabama has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-36%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 15 (95% range 10–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 15 (95% range 10–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026161021
2027161021
2028151021
2029151021
2030151021

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Nixburg 26020252000
Epes5120241980
Carrollton4820251994
Liberty City4620111979
Borden Sprng4219981993
Greensboro4120251966
Linden4020231968
Helicon4020251996
Holt3220251993
Gastonburg3220241996
Bay Minette2920251996
Nixburg2819991995
Liberty City 22820252017
Rock Chapel2620241995
Hillsboro2319961966
Cottonton2320251966
Latham 22320252005
Autaugaville2320251996
Gainestown Ferry2220151999
Howard2120251966
Warrior Std2120251966
Blocton2120251969
Vernon2120221996
Whitehouse2020251980
Wedgeworth2020251979

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.