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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Arizona has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+14%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.6 (95% range 0.80–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Arizona is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.6 (95% range 0.80–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.60.794.5
20272.60.804.5
20282.60.804.5
20292.60.804.5
20302.60.804.5

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pomerene5420251968
Cutter 21720182015
Patagonia1420251968
Amado1220251993
Redington920251993
Araby620211992
Florence519881968
Skull Valley520241997
Carr Mtn520251986
Sprucedale520251992
Mcneal320251993
Blue219911975
Red Rock 2220232015
Forest Lakes220251994
Cibola Lake220221993
Red Rock220141992
Sunizona 2220222022
Portal120221975
Prescott119811981
Laguna120231985
Ajo119791979
San Simon120241994
Lukeville119771977
Peña Blanca120251975
Sunizona119971973

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.