BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Arizona has edged up: up 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Arizona is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.79–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.79–4.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Arizona is projected to fall about 18% by 2029 — from 3.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.79–4.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.60.784.5
20262.60.784.5
20272.60.794.5
20282.70.794.5
20292.70.794.5

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pomerene6320241968
Amado2920231993
Patagonia2420241968
Cutter 21720182015
Redington1120231993
Peña Blanca820241975
Forest Lakes820241994
Araby620211992
Sprucedale620231992
Florence519881968
Skull Valley520241997
Blue219911975
Red Rock 2220232015
Cibola Lake220221993
Red Rock220141992
Sunizona 2220222022
Portal120221975
Prescott119811981
Laguna120231985
Ajo119791979
San Simon120241994
Lukeville119771977
Sunizona119971973
Palo Verde 2120232023
Alamo Res.120171995

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.