BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Missouri has increased: up 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Missouri is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 5.7–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±7.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Missouri is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 5.7–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±7.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20257.95.510
20267.95.610
20278.05.610
20288.05.710
20298.15.710

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Williamsvill3320241994
Osage Beach2320241997
Peace Valley2220241975
Clementine 22020072005
Palace2020242014
Bennett1820241994
Frankford1820241985
Rueter 21820242023
Crane1720241994
Ironton1619801972
Sweden1520241968
Cascade1520241967
Eugene1420242015
Centerville1320241994
West Plains1320242015
Whitewater1220241996
Lincoln1220242013
Mincy1220242013
Ohio1120241972
Viburnum1120242014
Doe Run1120242015
Graniteville1020241982
Rueter1020222018
Syracuse920241969
Union919991990

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.