BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Missouri

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Missouri has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+23%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Missouri is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 7.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 5.7–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.7–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±6.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Missouri is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 7.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 5.7–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±6.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.85.510
20277.95.610
20288.05.610
20298.05.710
20308.15.710

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bennett4020251994
Williamsvill3320251994
Peace Valley2320251975
Cascade2320251967
Clementine 22020072005
Rueter 21920252023
Ironton1619801972
Frankford1620251985
Sweden1520251968
Whitewater1520251996
Osage Beach1420251997
Graniteville1320251982
Ohio1220251972
Pulaski1120251974
Wesco1120251972
Huntsville1120251967
Crane1120251994
Viburnum1120242014
Bland1020251995
Richland1020252018
Rueter1020222018
Syracuse920241969
Centertown920251973
Centerville920251994
Millwood920252000

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.