BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Delaware

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Delaware has declined: down 30% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-30%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Delaware. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Delaware is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.98–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.98–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Delaware is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 2.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.8 (95% range 0.98–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.80.964.6
20272.80.964.6
20282.80.974.6
20292.80.984.6
20302.80.984.6

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blackbird820251994
Holleyville520041966
Millsboro520172017
Pepperbox520161998
Milton 2520172017
Harrington320251966
Holleyville 2320242006
Georgetown320221992
Mt Pleasant220161966
Dover219791966
Milton220161966
Wilmington120141966
Frederica120251966
Frankford120121966
Lowes Xrds119911966
Bethany Bch119861966
Pepperbox 2120252017

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.