BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Indiana

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Indiana has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-59%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has fallen sharply in Indiana: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Indiana is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.26–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Indiana is projected to fall about 27% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.26–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.464.2
20272.30.414.1
20282.20.364.1
20292.20.314.0
20302.10.264.0

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indian Spgs1520251982
Georgia1220251999
New Phila1120251982
Pimento1020251981
Brazil1020251966
Newberry1020251999
Cross Plains920251999
Clear Spring820251981
Wallace820242000
Celestine720251979
Cumback620211966
Vevay620251966
Washington520251987
Millersburg420241981
Corydon420251966
Scottsburg420251982
Knox320251996
Friendswood320241988
Spencer320241967
Azalia320251982
Hoosier320211990
Cyprss320251999
Kankakee Sands320252000
Packertown220041967
Belmont220241981

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.