BirdAnalyst
Species · Indiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Indiana

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Indiana has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in IndianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has fallen sharply in Indiana: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Indiana

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Indiana is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.26–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–4.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Indiana is projected to fall about 23% by 2029 — from 2.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.26–4.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.464.2
20262.30.414.2
20272.20.364.1
20282.20.314.0
20292.10.264.0

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Indiana

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Indiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indian Spgs1420241982
Newberry1220241999
Clear Spring1120241981
Georgia1120241999
Pimento1020241981
Celestine1020241979
Cross Plains1020241999
Brazil920241966
New Phila820241982
Wallace820242000
Azalia720241982
Cumback620211966
Scottsburg620241982
Corydon520241966
Millersburg420241981
Vevay420241966
Friendswood320241988
Spencer320241967
Brookville320241966
Hoosier320211990
Witts Station320242005
Packertown 2320242005
Packertown220041967
Wabash220241983
Belmont220241981

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.