BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in New Mexico has surged: up 965% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

+965%Since 1977TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in New Mexico: up 965% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in New Mexico is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.0–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in New Mexico is projected to fall about 33% by 2029 — from 2.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.0–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.901.9
20261.40.931.9
20271.40.961.9
20281.50.992.0
20291.51.02.0

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laborcita 24320242022
Laborcita3120191992
Red Rock2020241992
Escondida1120241998
La Cienega720221996
Emory Pass620241993
Gallinas520241997
Reserve520231993
San Antonio419771974
Magdalena420242005
Ojo Sarco320241969
Pecos320172013
Angel Fire 2320242008
Cooley Lake220241979
Jornada219891987
La Plata 2220162014
Bitter Lake220152015
Mesilla220001993
Queen220162013
Sanostee220242023
Sabinoso220191988
Logan220241988
Cebolla120231978
Capulin119931993
Grenville119931993

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.