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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Arkansas has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Arkansas is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 11–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Arkansas is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 11–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.2%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026141118
2027141118
2028141118
2029141118
2030141118

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dry Fork 25520252024
Four Lakes5220011994
Lockesburg4920192010
Dry Fork3420232000
Princeton 23320222022
Old Milo3220251967
Hollywood3220241967
Rupert2820241967
Magazine Mtn2820251993
Stephens2720252010
Locust Bayou2620231967
Princeton2420211998
Nance2420251992
Ramsey2319971967
Ashdown2320231967
Poyen2320071967
Ozark Nf2120251991
Ravenden Springs1820152010
Poyen 21620252008
Crows1519911967
Zion1520251967
Havana1420212010
Kelso1420162010
Stamps1220241967
Russell1220212010

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.