BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Arkansas has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-15%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
61Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Arkansas is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 11–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
11–1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Arkansas is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 11–18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025151118
2026151118
2027151118
2028151118
2029151118

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Four Lakes5220011994
Dry Fork 25020242024
Lockesburg4920192010
Dry Fork3420232000
Princeton 23320222022
Old Milo3220241967
Hollywood3220241967
Stephens2920242010
Rupert2820241967
Locust Bayou2620231967
Ozark Nf2420241991
Magazine Mtn2420211993
Princeton2420211998
Ramsey2319971967
Ashdown2320231967
Poyen2320071967
Nance2120241992
Waldron1820241967
Ravenden Springs1820152010
Hope1520241967
Crows1519911967
Eudora1420241967
Havana1420212010
Kelso1420162010
Hatfield 21420242017

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.