BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Michigan has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has collapsed in Michigan: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.05). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.000.000.06
20240.000.000.05
20250.000.000.05
20260.000.000.05
20270.000.000.05

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Barry S.G.A.220042004
New Buffalo120092003
Lawrence119881979
Bravo119831983
New Troy119831983
Nashville120221979
Coopersville120041999
Belding119871984
Howardsville119711971
Mottville120171971
Bell Oak119661966
Holt119781978
Fowlerville119791979
Adrian120061967
Prattville120061968
Juniata119791979
North Branch119781978
Pettysville119781977
Waldenburg119781978
Mayfield120092009

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.