BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Pennsylvania has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-95%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has collapsed in Pennsylvania: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±380.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±380.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Pennsylvania is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±380.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.58
20260.000.000.58
20270.000.000.58
20280.000.000.58
20290.000.000.58

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plesant Grov420241966
Portersville319881976
Normalville319731966
Needmore319911966
Berwick319961996
Roulette219891972
Ramsey219811969
Canadensis219741974
Shelocta220231968
Bald Eagle219711971
Naginey220021971
Pine Gr Mill220241967
Mifflintown220231966
Jefferson220241966
Warrens Mill220211971
West Grove219961966
Sugar Grove219821982
Slippery Rk119741974
Espyville119961994
Clover120042004
Harmonsburg119951966
Akeley119761975
Teepleville119691966
Sigel120111981
Lynch119921971

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.