BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Idaho has surged: up 600% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+600%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Idaho: up 600% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Idaho is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Idaho is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.61.12.2
20261.71.12.3
20271.71.12.3
20281.71.12.3
20291.71.22.3

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gifford2920171972
Magic Mtn2920241987
Joel1720241989
Featherville620241989
Baker420241975
Leadore320241984
Pocatello320191980
Salmon River320211995
Silver City320241994
Dougal Res320241988
Hot Spring320141988
Pasadena Val320161990
Triangle220211985
Sunbeam219941994
Picabo220212015
Blackft Res119951989
Challis120241979
Squirrel119931985
Centerville120131974
Springfield120171970
Glenns Ferry119861968
Crane Creek120191993
Iron Springs120231996
Cedar Hill120182016
Almo120231988

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.