BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Maryland has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-84%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has collapsed in Maryland: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Maryland is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.60 (95% range 0.00–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.60Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.860.002.0
20260.800.002.0
20270.730.001.9
20280.670.001.8
20290.600.001.8

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pt Republic619891966
La Plata620091966
Cheltenham520041966
Forest Grove520232011
Sinepuxent419781966
Upper Xrds319991966
Jones319921966
Cokesbury320241966
Newark320231966
Bald Friar319961994
Fair Hill319961992
Berlin320241980
Madonna320222009
Nottingham320242005
Wolfsville220211966
Silver Spg219891966
Olney220241966
Van Bibber220061966
Largo219811966
Tall Timbers220141966
Pomonkey220241966
Piney Neck220241966
Matthews220231966
Honga220241966
Vienna220231966

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.