BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in North Dakota has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has fallen sharply in North Dakota: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in North Dakota is projected to rise about 151% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.23–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1116.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+151%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1116.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in North Dakota is projected to rise about 151% by 2030 — from 0.48 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.23–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1116.9%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.182.1
20271.20.202.1
20281.20.212.2
20291.20.222.2
20301.20.232.2

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tobacco2920191968
Roosevelt Pk2520191982
Gorham1220251968
Solen220152008
Carson120061997
Regan120061968
Ft Yates119881982
Dickinson120191988
Dunn Center119971969
Carpio119931967
Stanley120251967
Denbigh119971969
Lark119761976
Bowman119841975
Zap120171991
Cedar Creek119891989
Golva120111988
Bentley120241990
Wild Rose120062006
Powers Lake120071998

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.