BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in North Dakota has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has collapsed in North Dakota: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.29–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1049.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1049.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.29–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1049.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.242.2
20261.20.252.2
20271.20.262.2
20281.20.282.2
20291.30.292.2

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tobacco2920191968
Roosevelt Pk2520191982
Gorham420181968
Solen220152008
Carson120061997
Regan120061968
Ft Yates119881982
Dickinson120191988
Dunn Center119971969
Carpio119931967
Stanley120231967
Denbigh119971969
Lark119761976
Bowman119841975
Zap120171991
Cedar Creek119891989
Golva120111988
Bentley120241990
Wild Rose120062006
Powers Lake120071998

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.