BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Nebraska has surged: up 630% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+630%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Nebraska: up 630% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Nebraska is projected to rise about 63% by 2030 — from 0.63 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.22–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±230.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±230.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Nebraska is projected to rise about 63% by 2030 — from 0.63 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.22–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±230.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.970.151.8
20270.980.171.8
20281.00.191.8
20291.00.201.8
20301.00.221.8

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crawford1920251980
Pine Ridge1320251999
Brady320251996
Johnstown220192019
Arthur220142010
Crookston220182018
Oglala Nat. Grass.120182003
Bartley119791979
Paxton120152007
Dalton120221995
Thurston119711971
Sparta120162016
Eagle Creek119911970
Swan Lake120072007
Table120052005
Gordon120101975
Benkelman120222003
Murray Lake120252018
Berea120182012
Hay Springs120242024
Nenzel120252021
Brownson120212021
Hendley120252025

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.