BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Nebraska has surged: up 573% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+573%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-breasted Chat Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Nebraska: up 573% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Nebraska is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.23–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+80%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.23–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±245.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Nebraska is projected to rise about 80% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.23–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±245.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.980.161.8
20260.990.181.8
20271.00.191.8
20281.00.211.8
20291.00.231.9

Yellow-breasted Chat Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Ridge1320241999
Crawford1220241980
Johnstown220192019
Brady220241996
Arthur220142010
Crookston220182018
Oglala Nat. Grass.120182003
Bartley119791979
Paxton120152007
Dalton120221995
Thurston119711971
Sparta120162016
Eagle Creek119911970
Swan Lake120072007
Table120052005
Gordon120101975
Benkelman120222003
Murray Lake120182018
Berea120182012
Hay Springs120242024
Nenzel120212021
Brownson120212021

Yellow-breasted Chat Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananevadanew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniasouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.