BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Piedmont has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-51%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
160Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has fallen sharply in Piedmont: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Piedmont is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.3–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–7.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Piedmont is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 4.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.6 (95% range 3.3–7.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.73.58.0
20265.73.48.0
20275.63.47.9
20285.63.37.9
20295.63.37.8

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Liberty CityALABAMA462011
Nixburg 2ALABAMA352024
NixburgALABAMA281999
Ft Pickett SVIRGINIA271995
ConcordVIRGINIA262024
Yates CrossroadsGEORGIA252024
FinchleyVIRGINIA222021
Ft Pickett NVIRGINIA191995
Liberty City 2ALABAMA172024
WylliesburgVIRGINIA172019
MoranVIRGINIA172024
Carrs StationGEORGIA162024
Curry HillGEORGIA162019
Uwharrie NfNORTH-CAROLINA162001
Cauthens XrdSOUTH-CAROLINA162021
MetasvilleGEORGIA152000
GreenwoodSOUTH-CAROLINA152019
Lincolnton 2GEORGIA142024
LanettALABAMA132024
Church RoadVIRGINIA132024
AppomattoxVIRGINIA132024
MillervilleALABAMA122024
MaxeysGEORGIA122024
ArcolaNORTH-CAROLINA122024
BiscoeNORTH-CAROLINA122017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.