BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has risen sharply: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+55%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has risen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 55% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-breasted Chat In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 20–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 25 (95% range 20–30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026241929
2027241929
2028242029
2029252030
2030252030

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Derry 2LOUISIANA782025
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA592023
Ivan 2LOUISIANA572025
Dry Fork 2ARKANSAS552025
Flat CreekLOUISIANA552025
TroutLOUISIANA542025
Four LakesARKANSAS522001
Lake CoveLOUISIANA522018
LockesburgARKANSAS492019
GoodwillLOUISIANA492025
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA482021
EnterpriseLOUISIANA442025
Fort JessupLOUISIANA432023
ClayLOUISIANA422025
MarionLOUISIANA401996
LinvilleLOUISIANA402025
ChathamLOUISIANA351975
WomackLOUISIANA352025
Dry ForkARKANSAS342023
Mount UnionLOUISIANA342025
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA342024
Princeton 2ARKANSAS332022
Burr FerryLOUISIANA332025
Old MiloARKANSAS322025
HollywoodARKANSAS322024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.