BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Chihuahuan Desert has surged: up 746% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+746%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Chihuahuan Desert: up 746% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.5 (95% range 3.3–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 4.5 (95% range 3.3–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.23.05.5
20274.33.15.5
20284.43.15.6
20294.43.25.7
20304.53.35.8

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS672009
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO352025
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO312019
Red RockNEW-MEXICO232025
Devils R CynTEXAS222025
OzonaTEXAS132022
PresidioTEXAS112025
Sierra BlancTEXAS112025
EscondidaNEW-MEXICO92025
LongfellowTEXAS72025
Dove Mtn.TEXAS72006
CastolonTEXAS62025
Coyanda DrawTEXAS62024
Ozona 2TEXAS52025
MarathonTEXAS52025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO41977
ComstockTEXAS32025
Casa PiedraTEXAS32025
LangtryTEXAS32000
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS32025
JornadaNEW-MEXICO21989
MesillaNEW-MEXICO22000
QueenNEW-MEXICO22016
AltudaTEXAS22016
PumpvilleTEXAS22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.