BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±67.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±67.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.230.000.73
20260.230.000.73
20270.220.000.73
20280.220.000.73
20290.220.000.72

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LydiaTEXAS122023
HobsonTEXAS51977
CayugaTEXAS42024
Gambill Ref.TEXAS32024
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA22024
ChoctawOKLAHOMA21979
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA22024
CampbelltonTEXAS22018
Three RiversTEXAS22024
Whit Mtn.TEXAS21995
MegargelTEXAS21997
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12018
BeggsOKLAHOMA12018
NobleOKLAHOMA12023
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA11976
TatumsOKLAHOMA12021
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12024
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12019
LockhartTEXAS12010
Oak GroveTEXAS11987
GauseTEXAS11976
Massey LakeTEXAS12021
OakwoodTEXAS11979
OlaTEXAS11967
Glen RoseTEXAS11973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.