BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Oaks and Prairies has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-41%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 65% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 65% by 2030 — from 0.73 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.260.000.78
20270.260.000.78
20280.260.000.78
20290.260.000.78
20300.260.000.77

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LydiaTEXAS72025
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA62025
HobsonTEXAS51977
Three RiversTEXAS52025
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA42025
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA42025
CayugaTEXAS42025
Gambill Ref.TEXAS32024
ChoctawOKLAHOMA21979
HeyburnOKLAHOMA22025
CampbelltonTEXAS22018
Whit Mtn.TEXAS21995
ComancheTEXAS22025
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12025
BeggsOKLAHOMA12018
NobleOKLAHOMA12023
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA11976
TatumsOKLAHOMA12021
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12019
LockhartTEXAS12010
Oak GroveTEXAS11987
GauseTEXAS11976
Massey LakeTEXAS12021
OakwoodTEXAS11979
OlaTEXAS11967

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.