BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 1.9–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–9.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 7.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.8 (95% range 1.9–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.22.310
20266.12.29.9
20276.02.19.8
20285.92.09.7
20295.81.99.6

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TchulaMISSISSIPPI361975
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI301994
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI302018
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI292024
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI192024
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA162024
TippoMISSISSIPPI162024
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA152022
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA152024
EudoraARKANSAS142024
KelsoARKANSAS142016
ShawLOUISIANA142024
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI142022
Rayville 2LOUISIANA122024
MoonMISSISSIPPI122021
MaynardARKANSAS112024
GillettARKANSAS112016
EnglandARKANSAS102024
MayflowerLOUISIANA102024
IsolaMISSISSIPPI102022
South BendARKANSAS92023
RamahLOUISIANA92024
GonzalesLOUISIANA92019
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY82024
DelhiLOUISIANA82021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.