BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-37%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 7.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 1.9–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–9.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 7.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 5.7 (95% range 1.9–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.12.310.0
20276.02.29.9
20285.92.19.8
20295.82.09.7
20305.71.99.6

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TchulaMISSISSIPPI361975
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI301994
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI302018
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI262025
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI252025
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA222025
TippoMISSISSIPPI192025
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA162025
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA152025
KelsoARKANSAS142016
ShawLOUISIANA142024
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI142022
FrogmoreLOUISIANA132025
MoonMISSISSIPPI122021
Rayville 2LOUISIANA102025
IsolaMISSISSIPPI102022
MayflowerLOUISIANA92025
GonzalesLOUISIANA92019
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE92025
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE92025
South BendARKANSAS82025
MaynardARKANSAS82025
RamahLOUISIANA82025
DelhiLOUISIANA82021
ConcordLOUISIANA82019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.