BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Southeastern Coastal Plain has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
331Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 9.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.0–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 9.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 8.0–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.915
2026127.915
2027127.915
2028127.915
2029128.015

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ScoobaMISSISSIPPI701982
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI632016
Scooba 2MISSISSIPPI601987
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI521987
EpesALABAMA512024
MansfieldTENNESSEE502024
Amite RiverMISSISSIPPI432013
LindenALABAMA402023
ErnulNORTH-CAROLINA402009
NorwoodLOUISIANA362024
Latham 2ALABAMA352024
HeliconALABAMA352024
WashingtonNORTH-CAROLINA352024
Spring HopeNORTH-CAROLINA352024
MonticelloMISSISSIPPI342017
GreensboroALABAMA332024
Big SandyTENNESSEE332024
GastonburgALABAMA322024
WhitehouseALABAMA312024
Sandy CreekMISSISSIPPI302000
HowardALABAMA292024
Water ValleyMISSISSIPPI282018
Chowan RiverNORTH-CAROLINA272006
Warrior StdALABAMA262024
HoltALABAMA262024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.