BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Southeastern Coastal Plain has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
331Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 9.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.8–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
7.8–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 24% by 2030 — from 9.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 12 (95% range 7.8–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026117.715
2027117.715
2028117.815
2029127.815
2030127.815

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ScoobaMISSISSIPPI701982
Mt CarmelMISSISSIPPI632016
Scooba 2MISSISSIPPI601987
DibervilleMISSISSIPPI521987
EpesALABAMA512024
CarrolltonALABAMA482025
Amite RiverMISSISSIPPI432013
WashingtonNORTH-CAROLINA422025
GreensboroALABAMA412025
LindenALABAMA402023
HeliconALABAMA402025
ErnulNORTH-CAROLINA402009
Spring HopeNORTH-CAROLINA382025
MansfieldTENNESSEE372025
Big SandyTENNESSEE362025
BargesGEORGIA342025
MonticelloMISSISSIPPI342017
HoltALABAMA322025
GastonburgALABAMA322024
Sandy CreekMISSISSIPPI302000
Bay MinetteALABAMA292025
Water ValleyMISSISSIPPI282018
BrownsvilleTENNESSEE282025
Chowan RiverNORTH-CAROLINA272006
Rock ChapelALABAMA262024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.