BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Badlands and Prairies has risen sharply: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has risen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: up 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 0.86 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.30–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±59%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 0.86 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.30–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±59%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.281.9
20271.10.291.9
20281.10.291.9
20291.10.291.9
20301.10.301.9

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA292019
Roosevelt PkNORTH-DAKOTA252019
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA122025
Miles CityMONTANA92025
ForsythMONTANA82023
Reed PointMONTANA82024
SchoonoverWYOMING82023
Custer 2MONTANA72025
LocateMONTANA62025
St XavierMONTANA62011
RosebudSOUTH-DAKOTA62010
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA62025
Hehn DrawMONTANA52025
BrandenbergMONTANA42025
CusterMONTANA42022
SavageMONTANA32025
LaplantSOUTH-DAKOTA32013
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA32015
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
BrusettMONTANA22024
JordanMONTANA22024
ShawmutMONTANA21990
PowdervilleMONTANA22007
St Xavier 2MONTANA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.