BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Tamaulipan Brushlands has surged: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+169%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Tamaulipan Brushlands: up 169% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 705% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.02–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+705%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±159.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 705% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.02–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.450.000.91
20250.460.000.91
20260.460.010.92
20270.470.010.92
20280.470.020.93

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pedro CreekTEXAS82010
Millett 2TEXAS42022
Catarina 2TEXAS22017
LaredoTEXAS22006
Agua NuevaTEXAS11969
EncinalTEXAS12001
George WestTEXAS12022
CatarinaTEXAS12010
La PryorTEXAS11971
HondoTEXAS12023
El IndioTEXAS12001
RaymondvilleTEXAS11994
SejitaTEXAS11994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.