BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-35%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 6.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 49% by 2029 — from 6.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.5 (95% range 0.00–8.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.70.008.8
20263.60.008.8
20273.60.008.7
20283.50.008.7
20293.50.008.6

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PomereneARIZONA632024
AmadoARIZONA292023
PatagoniaARIZONA242024
RedingtonARIZONA112023
Peña BlancaARIZONA82024
Forest LakesARIZONA82024
SprucedaleARIZONA62023
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO62024
Skull ValleyARIZONA52024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO52023
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO42024
BlueARIZONA21991
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22022
PrescottARIZONA11981
San SimonARIZONA12024
SunizonaARIZONA11997
Bartlett ResARIZONA12024
CutterARIZONA11993
SahuaritaARIZONA12016
McnealARIZONA12024
Clay SpringARIZONA12010
Carr MtnARIZONA12024
PortalARIZONA12022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.