BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Northern Rockies has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+83%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Northern Rockies: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 53% by 2029 — from 0.66 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.340.000.95
20260.330.000.94
20270.320.000.94
20280.320.000.93
20290.310.000.92

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Green RiverWYOMING211982
NewbridgeOREGON142024
LaurelMONTANA102022
BridgeportOREGON102022
Spring LakeWASHINGTON102024
CloverlandWASHINGTON102024
LogdellOREGON92024
SpartaOREGON82000
Rock SpringsWYOMING81983
FeathervilleIDAHO62024
Muddy CreekMONTANA62015
TroyOREGON62024
ClarkWYOMING62024
GeboWYOMING62024
Silver CreekOREGON52024
Hells CanyonOREGON52022
LovellWYOMING52024
Mtn ViewWYOMING51983
CodyWYOMING42018
Salmon RiverIDAHO32021
GreenoughMONTANA31996
TwickenhamOREGON32024
CumberlandWYOMING31982
MaybellCOLORADO22006
SunbeamIDAHO21994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.