BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Coastal California has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+57%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has risen sharply in Coastal California: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Coastal California is projected to rise about 202% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.03–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±175.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+202%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±175.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Coastal California is projected to rise about 202% by 2030 — from 0.24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.03–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±175.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.700.011.4
20270.710.021.4
20280.710.021.4
20290.710.021.4
20300.720.031.4

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
San YsidroCALIFORNIA82019
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA72025
JofeganCALIFORNIA42018
Red BluffCALIFORNIA22022
CalpellaCALIFORNIA21986
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA21981
OnoCALIFORNIA22012
FolsomCALIFORNIA22025
Cp. PendletonCALIFORNIA22004
JacumbaCALIFORNIA21986
CrestonCALIFORNIA21982
Gold HillCALIFORNIA22023
JacksonCALIFORNIA21984
OrovilleCALIFORNIA22024
TehamaCALIFORNIA22022
ReddingCALIFORNIA21983
TomheadCALIFORNIA22009
PenningtonCALIFORNIA11973
RumseyCALIFORNIA11987
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA12018
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA11990
MorenoCALIFORNIA12018
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA12009
HollisterCALIFORNIA12003
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.