BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 226% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+226%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 226% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.39–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.39–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±101.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 0.57 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.39–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±101.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.770.341.2
20270.780.351.2
20280.790.361.2
20290.800.381.2
20300.810.391.2

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter 2ARIZONA172018
Ash MeadowsNEVADA112025
ArabyARIZONA62021
FlorenceARIZONA51988
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA52010
Joshua Tree 2CALIFORNIA42025
Cibola LakeARIZONA22022
Red RockARIZONA22014
Red Rock 2ARIZONA22023
GlamisCALIFORNIA21977
BeattyNEVADA22024
NelsonNEVADA22016
LagunaARIZONA12023
AjoARIZONA11979
LukevilleARIZONA11977
Alamo Res.ARIZONA12017
Palo VerdeARIZONA12012
Casa GrandeARIZONA12014
Palo Verde 2ARIZONA12023
OnyxCALIFORNIA11998
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA12023
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA12025
LenwoodCALIFORNIA11980
TecopaCALIFORNIA12023
PearblossomCALIFORNIA11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.