BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Prairie Potholes has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-76%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has collapsed in Prairie Potholes: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.12
20260.030.000.12
20270.030.000.12
20280.030.000.12
20290.030.000.12

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA21970
Big StoneMINNESOTA11997
ClevelandMONTANA12024
HarlemMONTANA12021
GlasgowMONTANA11979
RedstoneMONTANA12017
ChinookMONTANA12024
SacoMONTANA12019
Wolf PointMONTANA12023
SpartaNEBRASKA12016
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA11991
ReganNORTH-DAKOTA12006
CarpioNORTH-DAKOTA11993
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA12023
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA11997
Wild RoseNORTH-DAKOTA12006
Powers LakeNORTH-DAKOTA12007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.