BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Sierra Nevada has surged: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+131%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Sierra Nevada: up 131% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Sierra Nevada Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Sierra Nevada is projected to rise about 26% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.01–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.010.27
20270.140.010.27
20280.140.010.27
20290.140.010.27
20300.140.010.27

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Sierra Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Forest HillCALIFORNIA22022
Silver CityCALIFORNIA11994
GeneseeCALIFORNIA12023
Higgins CornCALIFORNIA12025
DownievilleCALIFORNIA12022
RivertonCALIFORNIA12008
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA11990
PaxtonCALIFORNIA12025
Meadow ValleyCALIFORNIA12013
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA12001
CoultervilleCALIFORNIA12009
WawonaCALIFORNIA11998
Last ChanceCALIFORNIA11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.