BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-49%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.020.000.07
20260.020.000.07
20270.020.000.07
20280.020.000.07
20290.020.000.07

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Packertown 2INDIANA32024
PackertownINDIANA22004
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN22004
BismarkOHIO21992
LimestoneOHIO22012
South BendINDIANA11982
KnoxINDIANA12022
KewannaINDIANA12004
MiddleburyINDIANA12004
Columbia CtyINDIANA11991
EllisINDIANA11997
LakevilleINDIANA12024
LaporteINDIANA12000
LagrangeINDIANA12004
Indiana DuneINDIANA12003
LawrenceMICHIGAN11988
BravoMICHIGAN11983
New TroyMICHIGAN11983
NashvilleMICHIGAN12022
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN12004
BeldingMICHIGAN11987
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN11971
MottvilleMICHIGAN12017
Bell OakMICHIGAN11966
HoltMICHIGAN11978

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.