BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968
166Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Yellow-breasted Chat has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 9.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 1.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029
7.3Projected 2029 index
1.6–1395% range
±27%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20257.82.114
20267.72.013
20277.61.913
20287.51.713
20297.31.613

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Hardwoods.
DrakesboroKENTUCKY351993
RiverqueenKENTUCKY332024
WilliamsvillMISSOURI332024
JoyKENTUCKY322023
RupertARKANSAS282024
CollinwoodTENNESSEE262024
Ozark NfARKANSAS242024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY242019
HillsboroALABAMA231996
Osage BeachMISSOURI232024
BelknapILLINOIS222024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY222021
Peace ValleyMISSOURI222024
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS212023
SanduskyILLINOIS212023
Clementine 2MISSOURI202007
PalaceMISSOURI202024
PulaskiILLINOIS192024
ApexKENTUCKY192024
RomeOHIO192024
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS182015
RoyaltonILLINOIS182024
BennettMISSOURI182024
Rueter 2MISSOURI182024
CraneMISSOURI172024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.