BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Hardwoods has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-57%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has fallen sharply in Central Hardwoods: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 9.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 1.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 9.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 7.3 (95% range 1.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20267.82.114
20277.72.013
20287.61.913
20297.41.813
20307.31.613

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BennettMISSOURI402025
DrakesboroKENTUCKY351993
WilliamsvillMISSOURI332025
JoyKENTUCKY322023
RupertARKANSAS282024
Bays ForkKENTUCKY242019
HillsboroALABAMA231996
BelknapILLINOIS232025
RiverqueenKENTUCKY232025
Peace ValleyMISSOURI232025
CascadeMISSOURI232025
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY222021
CollinwoodTENNESSEE222025
Ozark NfARKANSAS212025
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS212023
SanduskyILLINOIS212023
Clementine 2MISSOURI202007
RomeOHIO202025
DelwoodILLINOIS192025
Rueter 2MISSOURI192025
Ravenden SpringsARKANSAS182015
BrownvilleILLINOIS182025
ApexKENTUCKY182025
DixieKENTUCKY162019
IrontonMISSOURI161980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.