BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-47%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.01–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.94Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 19% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.94 (95% range 0.01–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.152.0
20261.00.122.0
20271.00.081.9
20280.980.051.9
20290.940.011.9

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA482019
ElktonOREGON162024
UmpquaOREGON152024
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA122016
Lonesome RdgCALIFORNIA112014
OrleansCALIFORNIA102012
Secret ValOREGON102022
LongvaleCALIFORNIA82023
LoraneOREGON72024
GreenOREGON62024
Rio DellCALIFORNIA52008
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA52024
Days CreekOREGON52024
Emigrant LkOREGON51992
RuchOREGON52023
Sams ValleyOREGON42024
SalemOREGON42024
HolmesCALIFORNIA32024
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA32012
AlderpointCALIFORNIA32012
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA32007
SantiamOREGON32024
Crescent CtyCALIFORNIA22024
HoneydewCALIFORNIA22017
HullvilleCALIFORNIA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.