BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Northern Pacific Rainforest has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-43%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Northern Pacific Rainforest. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.01–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.93Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–1.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.93 (95% range 0.01–1.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.10.142.0
20271.00.111.9
20280.990.071.9
20290.960.041.9
20300.930.011.8

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Horse CreekCALIFORNIA482019
UmpquaOREGON132025
Hay ForkCALIFORNIA122016
Lonesome RdgCALIFORNIA112014
RuchOREGON112025
OrleansCALIFORNIA102012
LongvaleCALIFORNIA82023
Days CreekOREGON72025
Secret ValOREGON72025
GreenOREGON72025
HolmesCALIFORNIA52025
Rio DellCALIFORNIA52008
Emigrant LkOREGON51992
LoraneOREGON52025
SantiamOREGON52025
WedderburnOREGON42025
ElktonOREGON42025
Shasta LakeCALIFORNIA32025
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA32012
AlderpointCALIFORNIA32012
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA32007
Sams ValleyOREGON32025
HoneydewCALIFORNIA22017
HullvilleCALIFORNIA22019
KorbelCALIFORNIA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.