BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 366% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+366%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 366% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.36–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 41% by 2029 — from 1.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.36–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.980.321.6
20260.990.331.6
20271.00.341.7
20281.00.351.7
20291.00.361.7

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AnethUTAH392024
MoabUTAH372024
De BequeCOLORADO222024
HatchUTAH192024
CokedaleCOLORADO182024
JensenUTAH142024
Douglas PassCOLORADO132024
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO72022
CastletonUTAH71985
Main CanyonUTAH72024
Book RidgeUTAH62024
GallinasNEW-MEXICO52024
Blackhead PkCOLORADO41996
GooseberryUTAH42024
HarmonyCOLORADO32024
RosevaleCOLORADO32024
Rifle FallsCOLORADO32019
Ojo SarcoNEW-MEXICO32024
PecosNEW-MEXICO32017
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO32024
DragertonUTAH32022
VernalUTAH32012
MonticelloUTAH32023
Fletcher PkWYOMING32024
ParlinCOLORADO22000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.