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Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 395% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+395%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
105Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 395% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.41–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.41–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 31% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.41–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.361.7
20271.00.381.7
20281.10.391.7
20291.10.401.7
20301.10.411.7

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MoabUTAH512025
AnethUTAH322025
HatchUTAH302025
De BequeCOLORADO142025
Douglas PassCOLORADO132024
CokedaleCOLORADO132025
JensenUTAH112025
HarmonyCOLORADO82025
WalsenburgCOLORADO72025
Rifle FallsCOLORADO72025
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO72022
CastletonUTAH71985
Animas 2COLORADO62025
GallinasNEW-MEXICO52025
Fletcher PkWYOMING52025
Sybille CynWYOMING52025
Blackhead PkCOLORADO41996
Main CanyonUTAH42025
Book RidgeUTAH42025
RosevaleCOLORADO32024
Wet Mtns.COLORADO32025
PecosNEW-MEXICO32017
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO32024
GooseberryUTAH32025
VernalUTAH32012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.