BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-65%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
95Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.36–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.36–2.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to rise about 18% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.36–2.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.432.8
20261.60.412.8
20271.60.392.8
20281.60.382.7
20291.50.362.7

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TruhartVIRGINIA402024
WalkersVIRGINIA112023
QuinbyVIRGINIA92024
BlackbirdDELAWARE82024
Pt RepublicMARYLAND61989
La PlataMARYLAND62009
HolleyvilleDELAWARE52004
MillsboroDELAWARE52017
PepperboxDELAWARE52016
Milton 2DELAWARE52017
CheltenhamMARYLAND52004
Forest GroveMARYLAND52023
Port RoyalVIRGINIA52019
SharpsVIRGINIA52024
SinepuxentMARYLAND41978
White StoneVIRGINIA42024
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA42015
Long HillCONNECTICUT31974
HarringtonDELAWARE32024
Holleyville 2DELAWARE32024
GeorgetownDELAWARE32022
JonesMARYLAND31992
CokesburyMARYLAND32024
NewarkMARYLAND32023
NottinghamMARYLAND32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.