BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Great Basin has surged: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+186%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Great Basin: up 186% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Great Basin is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.88–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.88–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Great Basin is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 1.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.88–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.811.6
20261.20.831.6
20271.20.841.6
20281.20.861.6
20291.30.881.6

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GiffordIDAHO292017
Magic MtnIDAHO292024
Meadow VallyNEVADA232024
ImnahaOREGON222024
YakimaWASHINGTON202024
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON202024
PendletonOREGON182024
JoelIDAHO172024
NighthawkWASHINGTON142024
Fish LakeOREGON132024
EllensburgWASHINGTON132024
Humboldt Nf 2NEVADA92024
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA82024
Three ForksOREGON82021
Iron GateCALIFORNIA72019
TwispWASHINGTON72024
Virgin CreekNEVADA62018
LynnUTAH62023
WillisNEVADA52024
BakerIDAHO42024
Jericho JunctionUTAH42024
NewcastleUTAH42022
WaitsburgWASHINGTON42004
LeadoreIDAHO32024
PocatelloIDAHO32019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.