BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Gulf Coastal Prairie has surged: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+107%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Gulf Coastal Prairie: up 107% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 11% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.690.001.4
20260.700.001.5
20270.700.001.5
20280.710.001.5
20290.720.001.5

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
VintonLOUISIANA222009
Vinton 2LOUISIANA162024
MamouLOUISIANA41982
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA42017
HackberryLOUISIANA22016
MauriceLOUISIANA22002
JuniorLOUISIANA11991
LafitteLOUISIANA11971
GlencoeLOUISIANA12018
EstherLOUISIANA12014
KaplanLOUISIANA12014
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12018
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA12019
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA12024
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA12011
WoodlawnLOUISIANA12018
Hinkles FerTEXAS12023
WinnieTEXAS12015
StowellTEXAS12008
DanburyTEXAS11989
Rock IslandTEXAS12017
ChinquapinTEXAS12004
Port AcresTEXAS12019
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12010
Goliad PrairieTEXAS12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.