BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-94%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has collapsed in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±172.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.19
20260.020.000.18
20270.020.000.18
20280.020.000.18
20290.010.000.17

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HebronOHIO52015
BranchportNEW-YORK31973
MaysvilleOHIO32010
E YoungstownNEW-YORK21976
Herner CrnsOHIO21987
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA21982
RhinebeckNEW-YORK11966
RomulusNEW-YORK11975
OrleansNEW-YORK11977
Canadice LNEW-YORK11971
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK11983
HamburgNEW-YORK11980
SheridanNEW-YORK11975
Cherry HillNEW-YORK11985
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK11983
PenfieldNEW-YORK11972
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK11968
OgdensburgNEW-YORK11996
NaplesNEW-YORK11977
PittsfieldOHIO12018
WaylandOHIO12000
GarrettsvileOHIO11988
MiddlefieldOHIO11997
StrongsvilleOHIO11995
LenoxOHIO11980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.