BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 371% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+371%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 371% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.25–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.48Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.48 (95% range 0.25–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.450.220.69
20260.460.230.70
20270.470.230.70
20280.480.240.71
20290.480.250.72

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA132024
CrawfordNEBRASKA122024
TrincheraCOLORADO72022
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO41994
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO32023
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO22024
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO22019
LoganNEW-MEXICO22024
TenmileTEXAS22017
LamarCOLORADO12018
Kiowa 2COLORADO12022
Last Chance 2COLORADO12019
Fort MorganCOLORADO12023
ElbertCOLORADO12018
ArsenalCOLORADO12014
Arsenal 2COLORADO12018
LakinKANSAS12021
PaxtonNEBRASKA12015
DaltonNEBRASKA12022
BenkelmanNEBRASKA12022
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12018
BereaNEBRASKA12018
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA12024
BrownsonNEBRASKA12021
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.