BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 399% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

+399%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 399% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.50 (95% range 0.27–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.50Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.50 (95% range 0.27–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.470.230.70
20270.480.240.71
20280.480.250.72
20290.490.260.73
20300.500.270.74

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrawfordNEBRASKA192025
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA132025
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO41994
TrincheraCOLORADO32025
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO22025
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO22019
LoganNEW-MEXICO22024
TenmileTEXAS22017
LamarCOLORADO12018
Kiowa 2COLORADO12022
Last Chance 2COLORADO12019
Fort MorganCOLORADO12025
ElbertCOLORADO12018
ArsenalCOLORADO12014
Arsenal 2COLORADO12018
LakinKANSAS12021
PaxtonNEBRASKA12015
DaltonNEBRASKA12022
BenkelmanNEBRASKA12022
Murray LakeNEBRASKA12025
BereaNEBRASKA12018
Hay SpringsNEBRASKA12024
BrownsonNEBRASKA12021
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO11993
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.