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Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

17×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.7–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.7–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 30% by 2030 — from 10 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.7–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026127.816
2027128.017
2028138.317
2029138.517
2030138.717

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indian MtnTEXAS542025
UtopiaTEXAS292025
MontellTEXAS282025
LeakeyTEXAS222025
RockspringTEXAS112025
HarperTEXAS92025
San SabaTEXAS52025
BoerneTEXAS31984
Pidcoke 2TEXAS32023
PidcokeTEXAS22012
GeorgetownTEXAS11967
FitzhughTEXAS11977
Valley SpgsTEXAS11987
KempnerTEXAS12024
AdamsvilleTEXAS12023
LeanderTEXAS12003
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12025
Allen CreekTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.