BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 20 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Edwards Plateau

All regionsEdwards PlateauGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Edwards Plateau has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

17×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Edwards Plateau: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Edwards Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.6–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+19%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
8.6–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Edwards Plateau is projected to rise about 19% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 8.6–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025127.716
2026127.917
2027138.217
2028138.417
2029138.617

Routes In Edwards Plateau

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Edwards Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indian MtnTEXAS432024
MontellTEXAS372024
UtopiaTEXAS362024
LeakeyTEXAS282024
RockspringTEXAS132024
HarperTEXAS122024
BoerneTEXAS31984
Pidcoke 2TEXAS32023
San SabaTEXAS22024
PidcokeTEXAS22012
GeorgetownTEXAS11967
FitzhughTEXAS11977
Valley SpgsTEXAS11987
KempnerTEXAS12024
AdamsvilleTEXAS12023
LeanderTEXAS12003
Prairie Mtn.TEXAS12024
Allen CreekTEXAS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.