BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+23%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
211Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.30–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.87Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 37% by 2030 — from 1.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.87 (95% range 0.30–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.2%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.860.281.4
20270.860.291.4
20280.870.291.4
20290.870.291.4
20300.870.301.4

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trading PostKANSAS202025
FrankfordMISSOURI162025
BelleviewILLINOIS132025
OhioMISSOURI122025
BradburyILLINOIS112025
HuntsvilleMISSOURI112025
BrooklynIOWA102005
KellILLINOIS92025
MillwoodMISSOURI92025
UnionMISSOURI91999
RobinsonILLINOIS82023
WallaceINDIANA82024
FilleyMISSOURI82025
MadisonMISSOURI82024
EmdenMISSOURI82024
Mt VernonILLINOIS72025
DanvilleMISSOURI72025
McfallMISSOURI62025
Kahoka2MISSOURI62024
CameronMISSOURI52025
MoselleMISSOURI52025
ColumbiaILLINOIS42023
BeaucoupILLINOIS42025
OlneyILLINOIS42024
MarshallILLINOIS42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.