BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has edged up: up 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
207Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.26–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.83Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.26–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 46% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.83 (95% range 0.26–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.820.261.4
20260.820.261.4
20270.820.261.4
20280.820.261.4
20290.830.261.4

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Trading PostKANSAS342024
FrankfordMISSOURI182024
BelleviewILLINOIS152024
BradburyILLINOIS112024
OhioMISSOURI112024
BrooklynIOWA102005
UnionMISSOURI91999
RobinsonILLINOIS82023
WallaceINDIANA82024
MadisonMISSOURI82024
EmdenMISSOURI82024
MilfordMISSOURI82024
HuntsvilleMISSOURI72024
Mt VernonILLINOIS62024
DanvilleMISSOURI62024
SticklervillMISSOURI62024
McfallMISSOURI62024
New PointMISSOURI62024
Kahoka2MISSOURI62024
GulfportILLINOIS52023
JanesvilleILLINOIS52024
BeaucoupILLINOIS52024
MarshallILLINOIS52024
AthensvilleILLINOIS42022
ColumbiaILLINOIS42023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.