BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-breasted Chat In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 561% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+561%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-breasted Chat has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 561% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.07–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+58%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 58% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.07–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.060.25
20260.150.060.25
20270.160.060.25
20280.160.070.26
20290.160.070.26

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pear ValleyTEXAS32024
Shields 2TEXAS32005
LeovilleKANSAS22011
JohnstownNEBRASKA22019
BradyNEBRASKA22024
ArthurNEBRASKA22014
EldoradoTEXAS22023
SilverTEXAS22024
St JohnKANSAS12015
CoatsKANSAS11974
AlbertKANSAS11992
KanopolisKANSAS12021
GrayKANSAS11989
HanoverKANSAS12022
HollenbergKANSAS12023
CovertKANSAS12022
JewellKANSAS11969
PhillipsburgKANSAS11994
GoveKANSAS12015
Ash ValleyKANSAS12007
BartleyNEBRASKA11979
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12007
TableNEBRASKA12005
GordonNEBRASKA12010
NenzelNEBRASKA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.