BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-breasted Chat In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 712% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+712%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Mixed Grass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Yellow-breasted Chat In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.08–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–0.2795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.21 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.08–0.27). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.070.25
20270.160.070.26
20280.170.070.26
20290.170.070.26
20300.170.080.27

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Yellow-breasted Chat in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BradyNEBRASKA32025
Pear ValleyTEXAS32025
Mertzon 2TEXAS32025
Shields 2TEXAS32005
LeovilleKANSAS22011
JohnstownNEBRASKA22019
ArthurNEBRASKA22014
EldoradoTEXAS22023
St JohnKANSAS12015
CoatsKANSAS11974
AlbertKANSAS11992
KanopolisKANSAS12021
GrayKANSAS11989
HanoverKANSAS12022
HollenbergKANSAS12023
CovertKANSAS12022
JewellKANSAS11969
PhillipsburgKANSAS11994
GoveKANSAS12015
Ash ValleyKANSAS12007
BartleyNEBRASKA11979
Swan LakeNEBRASKA12007
TableNEBRASKA12005
GordonNEBRASKA12010
NenzelNEBRASKA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.