BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal

AnatidaeWaterfowlSpatula cyanoptera

Cinnamon Teal has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+148%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
486RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Cinnamon Teal

The Cinnamon Teal (Spatula cyanoptera) is a North American member of the Ducks, Geese & Waterfowl (Anatidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the waterfowl.

Size
12–43.5 in long (30–110 cm) — a medium to large waterfowl (typical for the family)
Habitat
Lakes, ponds, rivers, marshes and sheltered coastal waters.
Diet
Aquatic plants, seeds and invertebrates, dabbled at the surface or dived for.
Range
Recorded on 486 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 18 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Anatidae · Waterfowl

Notable Cinnamon Teal TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cinnamon Teal. See the full index history below.

Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal is projected to rise about 174% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+174%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±155.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal is projected to rise about 174% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±155.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.29
20260.150.000.29
20270.150.000.29
20280.150.000.29
20290.140.000.29

Where the Cinnamon Teal Is Detected

BBS routes recording Cinnamon Teal, sized by most recent count.

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend by State

Cinnamon Teal population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaskainsufficient datan/a2
Arizona-24%197612
California-79%197287
Colorado-32%197146
Idaho-61%197136
Kansasinsufficient datan/a2
Montana-26%197242
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a2
Nevada+44%197027
New Mexico-59%197512
North Dakotainsufficient datan/a3
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a1
Oregon-58%197153
South Dakotainsufficient datan/a5
Texas+94%197913
Utah+275%197341
Washington-75%197344
Wyoming-46%198058

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Cinnamon Teal population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest+6%197323
Great Basin+58%1970144
Northern Rockies-41%1971101
Prairie Potholes-38%197315
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+31%197162
Badlands and Prairies+119%198126
Shortgrass Prairie-58%197827
Coastal California-85%197252
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-63%197916
Sierra Madre Occidental-73%19783

Cinnamon Teal Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 148% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.