BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Oregon

All statesWaterfowl

Cinnamon Teal in Oregon has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-58%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
53Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cinnamon Teal Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cinnamon Teal has fallen sharply in Oregon: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cinnamon Teal Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±105.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cinnamon Teal in Oregon is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±105.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.002.4
20260.000.002.3
20270.000.002.3
20280.000.002.3
20290.000.002.3

Cinnamon Teal Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Cinnamon Teal in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blizzard Gap1720231984
Princeton1419851972
Warner Vally1320241993
Barnes Val1119871971
Sparta1020011971
Fish Lake1020231972
Catlow Rim1020241993
Lone Rock820152004
Dayton819931991
Modoc Point 2620242024
Adair620221998
Silver Creek420041990
Umatilla420211991
Zumwalt320051995
Willow Spg319711969
Adrian319901984
Bly320011973
Albee220001989
Bridgeport220041995
Fandango Can219981998
Malheur Nwr219981986
Alvord Lake220062006
Joseph220241974
Eagle Rock219761973
Svensen219911991

Cinnamon Teal Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.